据油气新5月15日消息称，沙特阿拉伯阿卜杜拉国王石油研究中心（KAPSARC）最近发布的一份报告预测，尽管经济存在不确定性，但到2023年，全球石油消费量预计将同比增长184万桶/天，达到1.019亿桶/天。

这比之前的预测略微上调了5万桶/天。

“虽然美国和欧洲的增长预测被下调，但亚洲的增长预测被上调，因为人们预计当前的动荡将在今年下半年平息。净需求效应是每天增加5万桶。”KAPSARC在报告中表示。

咨询智库指出，预计2024年需求将继续以略高的速度增长，达到191万桶/天。

“我们预计，运输燃料将推动燃料需求的增长，如果该国大型项目开始建设，则重型燃料将紧随其后。这些大型项目以及沙特阿拉伯实现50%可再生能源和50%天然气发电的目标是沙特2030年愿景的一部分。”KAPSARC补充道。

根据该报告，预计2023年经济合作与发展组织成员国的石油需求将同比增长30万桶/日，而非经合组织国家今年的石油需求可能增长84%，达到15.4万桶/日。

KAPSARC石油市场展望表明，经合组织国家在2023年前两个季度的需求增长将总体下降，非经合组织国家将继续增长。

“然而，在2023年下半年，预计经合组织国家将开始恢复部分失去的需求，而非经合组织国家将在第三季度保持温和增长，然后在第四季度下降。”KAPSARC在报告中补充道。

报告进一步指出，目前围绕全球经济的不确定性预计将在2023年主要影响经合组织国家，对非经合组织国家的影响较小。

经合组织成立于1961年，拥有38个成员国，包括奥地利、希腊、法国、挪威、美国、加拿大等。

该报告进一步指出，KAPSARC进行的一项民意调查发现，87%的人认为2023年可能出现全球经济衰退，如果通货膨胀持续下去，可能会出现社会动荡。

在供应方面，KAPSARC表示，2023年全球石油供应量预计将增长约197万桶/天，比之前的预测减少71万桶/天。

与此同时，预计2024年全球石油供应量将增加245万桶/天，比KAPSARC之前的预测高出15万桶/天。

曹海斌 摘译自 油气新闻

原文如下：

Global oil consumption expected to rise by 1.84 mbpd in 2023: KAPSARC

Despite economic uncertainties, global oil consumption is expected to record a year-on-year increase of 1.84 million barrels per day to 101.9 mbpd in 2023, a recent report released by Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center predicted.

This is a minor upward revision of 50,000 bpd from its previous forecast.

“While the US and Europe’s growth projections were revised downward,Asian growth estimates were raised due to the expectation that current turbulence would subside by the second half of this year. The net demand effect is an additional 50,000 bpd,” said KAPSARC in the report.

The advisory think tank noted that demand growth is expected to continue at a slightly higher rate of 1.91 mbpd in 2024.

“We anticipate that transportation fuels will drive the growth in fuel demand, followed by heavier fuels if construction on the country’s mega projects begins. These mega projects and Saudi Arabia’s target of having 50 percent renewable and 50 percent gas-fueled electricity generation are part of Saudi Vision 2030,” added KAPSARC.

According to the report, countries in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development group are expected to witness a limited year-on-year oil demand growth of 300,000 bpd in 2023, while non-OECD countries could experience a 84 percent rise this year to 154,000 bpd.

The KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook indicates that OECD countries should witness an overall decline in demand growth over the first two quarters of 2023, with non-OECD countries carrying the growth.

“However, in the second half of 2023, it is expected that OECD countries will start recovering some of the lost demand, while non-OECD countries maintain modest growth in Q3 (third quarter) before declining in Q4,” added KAPSARC in the report.

It further pointed out that the present uncertainties surrounding the global economy are mainly expected to impact OECD countries in 2023, with fewer implications on non-OECD nations.

Founded in 1961, OECD has 38 member countries, including Austria, Greece, France, Norway, the US, and Canada.

The report further noted that a poll conducted by KAPSARC has found 87 percent of people believe in the possibility of a global recession in 2023

On the supply side, KAPSARC said that global oil supply is projected to grow by approximately 1.97 mbpd in 2023, which is 710,000 bpd lower than its previous projection.

Meanwhile, the global oil supply is estimated to increase by 2.45 mbpd in 2024, 150,000 bpd higher than KAPSARC’s previous projection.