据油价网报道，南美洲小国圭亚那在过去6年中已成为南美洲最热门的海上油气钻探地点。自2015年以来，埃克森美孚公司及其合作伙伴美国赫斯公司在圭亚那近海斯塔布鲁克区块发现了大量石油，最近埃克森美孚公司将该区块的资源量估计数从90亿桶油当量提升至100亿桶油当量。 这家美国能源巨头在圭亚那海上取得了成功，预计到2026年前，埃克森美孚公司每天将从圭亚那泵出超过80万桶轻质(API度为32)低硫(含硫量0.58%)原油。 有迹象表明，圭亚那的石油繁荣正获得更大的势头，其他国际能源公司表示有兴趣在圭亚那开发业务。 目前，原油前景面临诸多不利因素，包括疫情带来的需求威胁、石油需求峰值即将到来以及气候变化压力日益增大。  

尽管存在这些风险，但圭亚那仍是一个全球具有吸引力的地区，因为它拥有高质量的原油、低盈亏平衡的价格和良好的监管环境。 以埃克森美孚公司为首的斯塔布鲁克区块财团与乔治城签订了产量分成协议，其矿区使用费非常低，仅为2%，远低于南美洲其他地区。 圭亚那政府还需要偿还这个国际财团的所有开发成本、运营费用、估计放弃成本和利息费用。对于埃克森美孚公司、赫斯公司来说，这是一笔非常有利可图的交易。随着斯塔布鲁克区块的产量在2030年结束前增加到每天100万桶甚至更多，预计斯塔布鲁克区块将成为这些能源公司的主要盈利来源。

圭亚那政府已表示，在明年的拍卖中它可能选择将埃克森美孚公司及其在斯塔布鲁克区块的合作伙伴赫斯公司排除在这一过程之外。如果发生这种情况，这不会对埃克森美孚公司造成任何实质性影响。埃克森美孚公司已经获得了Canje和Kaieteur海上区块的权利，并分别持有这两个区块35%和30%的权益。 然而，尽管在这两个区块钻了许多干井，这家美国能源巨头仍未能取得像斯塔布鲁克区块一样的成功。

计划中的石油区块拍卖，以及对这个前英国殖民地更加有利的修订协议，将进一步推动为圭亚那带来巨大利益的石油繁荣。 2020年，国际货币基金组织发现，这个贫穷的南美国家的国内生产总值飙升了43.5%，而非洲大陆其他国家的国内生产总值却因疫情而大幅萎缩。

国际货币基金组织预测，圭亚那的GDP将在2021年再次增长20.4%，令人印象深刻。 尽管对与埃克森美孚公司及其合作伙伴签署的合同的不利性质表示相当大的担忧，包括收入的相当大一部分的损失，乔治城仍从原油销售中获得了相当大的财政收入。在斯塔布鲁克区块的丽莎大油田第一阶段开发项目于2019年12月开始日产12万桶原油后，圭亚那政府从2020年2月开始销售700多万桶原油，获得3.88亿美元收入。 新宣布的石油区块拍卖将大大促进圭亚那成为全球主要石油生产国和出口国的计划。

能源咨询公司Wood Mackenzie在2020年的一份报告中预测，到2028年，圭亚那的平均原油日产量将超过110万桶，使其成为全球石油历史上第11个达到日产100万桶原油里程碑的国家。 圭亚那完全有可能超过这一预期目标。  

在巨大的斯塔布鲁克区块，开发活动和生产活动还处于初级阶段。埃克森美孚公司在该区块迄今已获得了23处高质量石油发现，目前正着眼于开发Yellowtail项目。 这些油田包括Yellowtail-1、Yellowtail-2和Redtail-1油田，将钻取41至67口井，到2025年末或2026年初投产时，将增加25万桶/天的原油产能。 虽然该项目正处于批准阶段，最终投资决定预计将在2022年初做出，但埃克森美孚公司已经将FPSO的建设授予了SBM 海上公司。 当该设施在2025年末或2026年初开始运营时，它将为埃克森美孚公司在斯塔布鲁克区块的原油日产量增加25万桶，可能使其总原油日产量超过100万桶，进一步增加圭亚那成为全球主要原油生产国的可能性。 这将提振这个贫穷的南美国家的经济，并在很长一段时间内维持高水平的GDP增长。  

李峻 编译自 油价网

原文如下:

Guyana To Become The 11th Country To Produce Over 1 Million Bpd

The tiny South American nation of Guyana has emerged as the hottest offshore drilling location on the continent over the last six years. The swathe of oil discoveries made by ExxonMobil and its partners, Hess, in the offshore Stabroek Block, since 2015, recently saw the energy supermajor upgrade its resources estimate for the block from 9 billion to 10 billion barrels of oil equivalent. The energy supermajor’s success in offshore Guyana sees it forecasting that it will be pumping over 800,000 barrels of light (32° API gravity) sweet (0.58% sulfur content) crude oil per day by 2026. There are signs that Guyana’s oil boom is gaining greater momentum with other international energy companies expressing interest in developing operations in the country. This comes at a time when considerable headwinds regarding the outlook for crude oil exist, including the demand threats posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, the looming arrival of peak oil demand and growing climate change pressures.

Despite the risks, Guyana is an attractive jurisdiction for energy companies to operate in because of high-quality crude oil, low breakeven prices and a favorable regulatory environment. The Stabroek Block consortium, led by Exxon, was able to secure a production sharing agreement with Georgetown that has an incredibly low royalty rate of a mere 2%, far lower than any other jurisdiction in South America. Guyana’s government is also on the hook to reimburse the consortium for all development costs, operating expenses, estimated abandonment costs and interest expenses. That is a very lucrative deal for Exxon, Hess, with it expected to be a major contributor to earnings for those energy companies as production in the Stabroek Block ramps up, to 1 million barrels per day or more before the end of the decade.

Given the considerable furor surrounding the Stabroek deal, Guyana’s government has flagged that it may choose to exclude Exxon as well as its partners in the Stabroek Block, Hess , from the process. If that occurred, it would not have any material impact on Exxon which has already secured rights to the Canje and Kaieteur offshore blocks where it is the operator and holds a 35% and 30% interest, respectively. Nonetheless, the energy supermajor, despite drilling a number of dry wells across both blocks, has failed to achieve the success it has enjoyed with the Stabroek Block.

The planned auction, along with revised agreements that are more favorable toward the former British colony, will add further momentum to an oil boom that has generated tremendous benefits for Guyana. In 2020 the IMF found that the impoverished South American country’s gross domestic product soared by a notable 43.5% when it sharply contracted for every other country on the continent because of the pandemic. The IMF has forecast that Guyana’s GDP will expand yet again during 2021 by an impressive 20.4%. Georgetown, regardless of the considerable concerns expressed regarding the detrimental nature of the contract with Exxon and its partners, including the loss of a considerable portion of revenue, has earned considerable fiscal income from crude oil sales. The government received $388 million from the sale of just over 7 million barrels of crude oil which began in February 2020 after the 120,000 barrel per day capacity Liza Phase One oilfield in the Stabroek Block started production in December 2019. The newly announced oil auction will go a long way to advancing Guyana’s plans to become a major global oil producer and exporter.

Energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie in a 2020 report predicts that Guyana will be pumping on average over 1.1 million barrels of crude oil per day by 2028, making it only the 11th country in the history of oil to reach the one million barrels per day milestone. There is every likelihood that Guyana will exceed that projected target.

The development activities and production are only in their infancy in the prodigious Stabroek Block, where Exxon has made 23 high-quality oil discoveries and is now eyeing the development of the Yellowtail project. This, which comprises the Yellowtail-1, Yellowtail-2, and Redtail-1 discoveries, will involve the drilling of 41 to 67 wells and will add 250,000 barrels per day of capacity when it comes online by late 2025 or early 2026. While the project is at the approval stage, with the final investment decision expected in early 2022, Exon has already awarded the construction of the FPSO to SBM Offshore. When the facility commences operations in late-2025 or early-2026 it will add 250,00 barrels of capacity to Exxon’s production from the Stabroek Block, potentially taking its oil output to over 1 million barrels per day further bolstering the likelihood that Guyana will become a major global oil producer. That will boost the impoverished South American country’s economy and sustain elevated levels of GDP growth for a prolonged period.