据油价网12月1日消息称，国际能源机构(IEA)周三表示，今年全球可再生能源装机容量将破纪录地增加，但在未来五年内，要想在2050年前实现净零增长，还需要新增两倍的年装机容量。

IEA在其《2021年可再生能源市场报告》中表示，2021年将有近290吉瓦的新可再生能源投入使用，与 2020 年创下的记录相比增长 3%，其中太阳能光伏发电的增长遥遥领先。

IEA 表示，但是，尽管 2021 年新增装机容量创历史新高，2021-2026年的可再生能源装机容量预计比2015-2020年增加50%，但如果世界仍希望在2050年实现净零，太阳能、风能和所有其他可再生能源的部署速度还需要更快。

“总体而言，可再生能源发电能力的预测仍大大低于净零情景的水平。就太阳能光伏而言，与我们在主要案例预测中看到的情况相比，未来5年平均年增加量需要增加近一倍，”IEA在报告中表示。

“为了实现净零排放，在我们的主要案例中，风力增加量还需要增加一倍以上。尽管在大多数国家，陆上风力发电的成本比化石燃料替代品便宜，但非经济障碍(包括许可和社会接受)阻碍了更快的发展。”

IEA 估计，自 2020 年初以来，光伏级多晶硅的价格上涨了四倍多，钢铁上涨了50%，铝上涨了80%，铜上涨了60%，运费上涨了六倍。

该机构补充说:“与2019年的大宗商品价格相比，我们估计公用事业规模的太阳能光伏和陆上风能的投资成本要高出25%。”

国际能源署指出，约100吉瓦的可再生能源合同有可能因商品价格冲击而推迟。

曹海斌 摘译自 油价网

原文如下：

IEA: Renewable Capacity Growth Needs To Double For Net-Zero

The world is set to add record-breaking renewable capacity additions this year, but it will still need double new annual capacity over the next five years to achieve the net-zero by 2050 scenario, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday.

Nearly 290 gigawatts (GW) of new renewable power will be commissioned in 2021, up by 3 percent compared to the record set in 2020, with solar PV leading the increase, the IEA said in its annual Renewables 2021 Market Report.

But despite the record additions in 2021, and an expected 50-percent increase in renewable capacity additions in 2021-2026 compared to 2015-2020, the industry needs even faster deployment of solar, wind, and all other renewable energy sources if the world still hopes to get on track to meet net-zero by 2050, the IEA said.

“Overall, the forecast for renewable generating capacity remains significantly below the level required for the Net Zero Scenario. For solar PV, average annual additions need to almost double in the next five years compared to what we see in our main case forecast,” the IEA said in the report.

“To achieve the Net Zero Scenario, wind additions also need to more than double those in our main case. Although onshore wind generation costs are cheaper than fossil-fuel alternatives in most countries, non-economic barriers including permitting and social acceptance hamper faster expansion,” the agency noted.

Since the beginning of 2020, prices for PV-grade polysilicon have more than quadrupled, steel has increased by 50 percent, aluminum by 80 percent, copper by 60 percent, and freight fees have risen six-fold, the IEA has estimated.

“Compared with commodity prices in 2019, we estimate that investment costs for utility-scale solar PV and onshore wind are 25% higher,” the agency added.

Some 100 GW of contracted renewable capacity risks being delayed by commodity price shocks, the IEA notes.