据ICIS-MRC网站11月17日莫斯科报道，国际能源署 (IEA) 于11月16日表示，石油市场的紧张局面可能会有所缓解，预计在美国产量回升的背景下，11月-12月全球日供应量将增加150万桶，并强调炼油厂维护的复苏。

总部位于巴黎的IEA在其最新的月度石油市场报告中指出，部分由欧佩克+国家的政策推动的高油价既“缓和”了石油需求的复苏，也刺激了美国页岩油产量。

IEA将2022年的日需求增长预测上调10万桶，至340万桶，称需求受到“强劲的汽油消费和不断增加的国际旅行”的支持，但补充道，“欧洲新的新冠疫情、工业活动减弱和油价上涨将抑制增长。”

在供应方面，其将第四季度的供应预测上调了33万桶/日，并表示，到今年年底，供应将达到9920万桶/日，同比增长640万桶/日。

在炼油领域，IEA表示，炼油行业将从主要的维护影响中恢复，称全球原油日产量将10月-12月期间增加300万桶，然后在2022年上半年“暂停”。

根据IEA的数据显示，正如MRC此前公布的那样，截至9月17日的当周，美国商用原油库存减少348万桶，至4.1396亿桶，较五年平均水平低8%以上。股市最近一次下跌是在2018年10月5日。

郝芬 译自 ICIS-MRC

原文如下：

Global oil supply to rise to 1.5 mln b/d in November-December

The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Nov. 16 signaled a likely easing of oil market tightness, forecasting world supply to rise by 1.5 million b/d in November-December on the back of a US output resurgence, and highlighting a recovery from refinery maintenance.

In its latest monthly oil market report, the Paris-based IEA noted that high prices, driven partly by the policies of OPEC+ nations, were serving both to "temper" the recovery in oil demand and spur US shale output.

The IEA nudged up its 2022 demand growth estimate by 100,000 b/d to 3.4 million b/d, saying demand was being supported by "robust gasoline consumption and increasing international travel," but added, "new COVID waves in Europe, weaker industrial activity and higher oil prices will temper gains."

On the supply side it revised its fourth-quarter supply estimate higher by 330,000 b/d and said supply by the end of the year would reach 99.2 million b/d, up 6.4 million b/d year on year.

In the refining segment, the IEA signaled a return from major maintenance impacts, saying throughput globally would rise by 3 million b/d between October and December before "pausing" in the first half of 2022.

As MRC informed before, US commercial crude stocks fell 3.48 million barrels to 413.96 million barrels in the week ended Sept. 17, to more than 8% below the five-year average, Energy Information Administration data showed. Stocks were last lower Oct. 5, 2018.